LONDON (Reuters) ? The United States and the European Union stepped up pressure on Iran on Wednesday with European diplomats agreeing in principle to ban Iranian oil imports and Washington sending its Treasury Secretary to Asia to discuss new sanctions.
EU diplomats said the European Union governments reached a preliminary agreement to ban imports of Iranian crude but had yet to decide when such an embargo would be put in place.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will travel to China and Japan next week for meetings with senior government officials in both countries, and will offer up ideas to place increased pressure on Iran, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday.
Below are analysts' comments on the new developments:
HELEN HENTON, HEAD OF COMMODITY RESEARCH, STANDARD CHARTERED BANK, LONDON:
"I would expect oil prices in Europe, on balance, to be higher if an embargo is imposed, and prices in Asia to be lower. Iran is not going to stop producing oil. It will just have to start selling it elsewhere - and that mostly means to Asia. In the first nine months of last year, Iran sold 65 percent of its oil to Asia - to China, India and other Asian economies - and that should continue. But Asian buyers may end up paying less for it.
"In terms of timing, even if a final agreement on an embargo on Iranian oil is reached by the end of January, a ban would probably not be in place until the end of March."
GENE MCGILLIAN, ANALYST, TRADITION ENERGY, STAMFORD, CONNECTICUT:
"That's going to be bullish in the short term. India, China and some other Asia countries may end up getting a reduced price on Iranian oil and that could be good for their economies. But European countries will have to find other sources."
"The EIA and IEA released reserves to offset the Libyan disruption, showing they are willing to do that; but it may be a one-time gesture and they may wait to see what the impact is from an EU ban, if the EU does end up acting to ban Iranian oil."
OLIVIER JAKOB, CONSULTANT, PETROMATRIX, ZUG, SWITZERLAND:
"Iran has now new policies of responding to threats by threats ... There is a lot of speculation about them blocking the Strait of Hormuz or mining it, but I think it will be a step too far. Military action will be the last step as it will lead to a full blown war. I think their response will be about interpretation of the free passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz ... China will simply wait and try to capture the lowest possible price for Iranian oil"
GARETH LEWIS-DAVIES, ENERGY STRATEGIST, BNP PARIBAS, LONDON:
"There's an anticipation that it might lead to an escalation of military activity in the region, but we think this is overplayed."
"You have to look at whether it has an immediate impact on purchases and it seems it does not. Also most Iranian oil is purchased outside the EU and United States, with India and China big buyers. It will have more of an impact on heavier grades, so the Dubai benchmark will be more affected than Brent, which is being buffeted by increased supply from Libya."
JONNY TREMAIN, EBULLIO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, SOUTHEND, UK:
"I think it's a little over-hyped. My overall view is that I'm bearish crude - if we didn't have this geopolitical tension crude would be a lot lower. If they did fully ban Iranian oil it would be so harmful for the global economy. I don't think political leaders would make a decision as silly as that.
"I think this is just increased saber-rattling - it's the same situation as the Straits of Hormuz - it would be absolutely crazy for the Iranians to close that down. Not only would it hurt the West, it would hurt the global economy and Iran. But the markets will rally as we have just gone through some major technical levels."
ADAM SIEMINSKI, ENERGY ECONOMIST, DEUTSCHE BANK, WASHINGTON:
"There was growing concern that negotiations were not satisfactory in the view of many countries in Europe. They seem to be inclined to move forward with the sanctions."
"There will be controversy regarding the sanctions as there are a number of countries like Italy and Spain that import from Iran. The Saudis do have spare capacity and other imports can replace what came from Iran before. But the results of this are still unclear. China, Turkey and India are still large importers of Iranian crude and whoever was selling that will have to find markets outside of Europe.
"The sanctions on the central bank will make it increasingly difficult to make payments to Iran. And that's what is expected to bring the country to the conference table."
"This probably won't mean that Iran exports will fall. It will be a reshuffling of where the Iranian exports are destined."
(Reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov, Simon Falush and Claire Milhench; Editing by Christopher Johnson)
Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/europe/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20120104/wl_nm/us_iran_oil
shannon brown utah jazz mike rowe pro bowl 2012 ron artest deion sanders shld
কোন মন্তব্য নেই:
একটি মন্তব্য পোস্ট করুন